GrammarC1Expressing Probability

Expressing Probability

Modal Verbs~6 min

Learning Objectives

  • Use should/ought to for expectations
  • Use be likely to / bound to for probability

What you'll learn

By the end of this lesson, you'll be able to express probability: how likely something is to happen or be true.

When do I use it?

Probability sits between possibility and certainty:

  • Good chance: "should", "ought to": "The train should arrive soon." (expected)
  • Probable: "probably", "likely": "It will probably rain." "He's likely to accept."
  • Almost certain: "bound to": "They're bound to win."

Use "should" for expectations based on normal circumstances: "The repair should take an hour." It is not about obligation here.

How do I form it?

Structure

should / ought to + base verb (expected result) be likely / bound + to + verb probably + verb

  • The parcel should arrive on Thursday.
  • She ought to pass the exam easily.
  • Prices are likely to keep rising.
  • He's bound to be angry about this.

Common mistakes for Spanish speakers

Warning

"Debería" expresses both obligation and probability in Spanish, but in English "should" for probability means "I expect it to happen": "should arrive soon" ≠ "must arrive soon". Do not use "probably" with "should" redundantly ("probably should arrive" is odd), and note "ought to" keeps the "to" while "should" does not. For the past, "should have + participle" expresses expectation or regret, not certainty.

Hint

should/ought to = expected. likely to/bound to = probable. Distinguish from must (certainty) and obligation.

Practice

Multiple Choice

C1

Which sentence expresses an expectation?

Fill in the Blank

C1

He's bound win the competition.

Hint: be bound + to + verb.

Find the Error

C1
Click on the incorrect word:

Sentence Transformation

C1
Original
It will probably snow this weekend.

Task: Rewrite with 'is likely to'

Hint: be likely + to + verb.

Practice Speaking

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Level: C1